Daily Analysis: 7 Mar 2019

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Fundamental Analysis

(7th Mar): USD has gained over the past week as the healthy US economy data is attracting capital away from the other G10 currencies. ADP labour reports suggests that the labour market remains healthy although not exceptionally strong as in recent months. As the market is dominated by a risk-off sentiments, USD can be strengthened further as a better safe haven asset compared to JPY due to the recent strong U.S. economy.



(6th Mar): USD is capturing a broad-based bid thanks to the Aussie. The dollar gained as the February ISM gauge rose to 59.7 vs est. 57.4 from 56.7. New home sales also beat expectations, increasing by 621k vs est. 600k in December. The US economy still expands well amid of global weaknesses and our technical analysis shows that the currency could face resistance as it edges up to the half-month high at 97.00 but if it surpasses the level, a further rise could occur.



(5th Mar): USD recovered from an earlier slump fueled by President Donald Trump’s comments about the dollar’s strength and renewed criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as someone who “ likes raising interest rates”. Compared to the eurozone, all seems well in the U.S. The GDP in the fourth quarter of last year was 2.6% and, while lower than the Q3, it was still above the same period of 2017. On Friday, a number of 184,000 jobs are expected to have been created, which is still a solid number even if below the previous barnstorming 304,000 in February. We remain bullish on USD due to the sound economy growth and high chance of a upbeating labour report.



(4th Mar): In the U.S., Advance GDP, which was released a month late due to the government slowdown, showed a gain of 2.6% in Q4. Although this was weaker than the 3.4% gain in Q3, it was well above the estimate of 2.2%. The better than expected reading can be credited to strong consumer spending and business investment. The U.S. economy continues to perform well, with a strong expansion of 3.1% in 2018. Even with the strong GDP release, however, it’s unlikely that the Federal Reserve will change its dovish stance.

The US data this week is expected to deliver positive results as the DXY is expected to bounce up to 97.24.This Friday U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report should deliver good results as Powell said the labor market is strong. This report is expected to show the economy added 185K jobs in February and we think the number could upbeat the expectation. The Unemployment Rate is expected to dip to 3.9% and Average Hourly Earnings are estimated to have risen by 0.3%, up from 0.1%.




Technical Analysis

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Fundamental Analysis

(7th Mar): Euro is hovering near 1.13 versus dollar ahead of ECB rate decision. The ECB is expected to announce new rounds of long-term liquidity funding for eurozone banks and to lower its growth and inflation forecasts. A deep cut … [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.

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