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US Equity
Fundamental Analysis
(5th Apr): As both President Xi and President Trump have expressed optimism upon an early conclusion in the trade talk, the stock market should be the first to jump above. We should see a high open for tonight’s trading, while the market could edge lower in expectation of the non-farm payroll, which can print lower than market’s expectation according to Wednesday’s ADP.
(4th Apr): Asian stocks are mixed on Thursday morning as investors despite S&P 500 rally on Thursday night. The US 10-year treasury notes yield 2.52%, the highest since March 22, versus March 27 low near 2.35%.
The market is still dominated by a weak risk-off sentiment buoying USD and JPY for today’s trading, though the support could be weak. The S&P 500 still rests slightly above its previous swing high at 2862 with futures indicating a possible retracement tonight. The VIX index rose overnight surprisingly while SPX edged higher, indicating a capped risk appetite in the market upon an “elusive trade deal”. The stock market could consolidate or edge slightly higher amid hopes of a trade deal.
(3rd Apr): Asian stocks rallied on Wednesday morning after news that the U.S. and China have ironed out most of their differences in trade negotiations. Treasury yields rose towards 2.5%.
China’s services PMI rose to 54.4 index points in March, beating an expected rise to 52.3 index points from February’s reading of 51.1 index points. This echoes with the previous release of an upbeat manufacturing PMI print earlier last week, indicating a pickup in both the manufacturing and services sectors in the second largest economy. The risk-on sentiment and good news from the trade front are likely to keep the stock from possible retracement for today’s trading.
While this confusion could cast some uncertainties on AUD, the currency is still likely to hold on at the monthly high level for a while. This echoes our technical analysis, showing limited upside where the AUD could consolidate the gains in today’s trading.
(2nd Apr): Our RORF model is showing a shrinking risk appetite in favor of the safe haven USD, if not JPY for today’s trading. The S&P 500 broke above its previous swing high at 2860 and we could see some consolidation price action around the level before it rallies further. The rally in the market is more like running on fumes. Without further good news from the trade talk or data front, the stock market could see downward pressure.
(1st Apr): The market continues last Friday’s risk-on sentiment after China posted better-than-expected PMI number. Manufacturing activity in China expanded unexpectedly in March after shrinking for three straight months. The Caixin PMI came in at 50.8 for March, the first time in the past four months ending in the expansion territory. The official PMI released earlier on Sunday also showed it rose to 50.5 in March from February’s three-year low of 49.2.
On the trade front, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit Washington on Wednesday to continue the trade talk. With this, we are expecting some volatility this week through the landscape still remains strong risk-on, which is likely to drive the stock market up.
Technical Analysis
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USD
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Fundamental Analysis
(5th Apr): On Friday we will see the release of U.S. Non-farm payroll. The market is still expecting sound growth, which is one reason why the Fed is holding the rate unchanged. However, Friday’s labor report could show downside risks of the economy based on Wednesday’s ADP job report, which printed 129K against the expectation… [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.
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