Daily Analysis: 3 May 2019

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Fundamental Analysis

(3 May): ECB officials expressed confidence over Eurozone brightening economic outlook, with Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, whose country is at the crux of a broader slowdown in the region indicating that Germany’s excellent labor-market situation and rising incomes should help boost private consumption, with a strong increase in retail sales in the first quarter providing an early indication of the trend. He urged the ECB to press ahead with its exit from unconventional monetary policy if inflation allows. According to Bloomberg, CPI and PPI data are expected to show an increase to 1.0% and 1.5%, exceeding March numbers which came in at 1.4% and 0.8% respectively which could add bullish pressure to the currency. Although headlline and core inflation dropped in March, it is highly attributed to later timing of Easter holidays which distorted travel, hotel and restaurant prices. Looking beyond the recent volatility, the economic slowdown seems to have little impact on prices with the underlying inflation gradually building. Hence, if inflation data perform better than expected, we could be seeing a short rally in the currency.  



(2 May): EU GDP expanded by 0.4% in the first quarter beating estimates of 0.3%, showing that policy makers may have got it just right. President Mario Draghi indicated that the industrial sectors were going through a rough patch caused mainly by one-off factors such as disruptions in Germany’s automotive sectors and trade tensions between US and China. Given the recent PMI data, it seems that the EU economy is picking up, with Italy, France, and EU PMI coming in ahead of estimates while Germany’s PMI fell just slightly short of its estimates of 44.5, coming in at 44.4. Meanwhile, there is no sign that the labor market getting weaker: The region’s unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent in March from 7.8 percent in February, hitting the lowest level in more than ten years. These improvements, alongside rising wages, will continue to help the services sector, which is more dependent on domestic spending. This allows a reassessment of the decision to delay the first hike in interest rates to at least the start of 2020, boosting the currency.  



(30 April): Riksbank, the central bank of Sweden decision to delay their next rate hike and continue with their quantitative easing investment caused the currency to retreat from their recent high. Meanwhile, investors are keeping a close watch on the Eurozone’s first quarter GDP report and German’s labour and inflation inflation data. We are expecting a firmer employment and GDP numbers, given the recent strong PMI data from Germany and Eurozone PMI signalling signs of  expansion. However, inflation is expected to be lower due to the weak PPI numbers from Germany. While we expect the GDP and employment numbers to add further upside to the currency, most of the positive sentiment has been priced in and the rally is likely to be short lived especially if US data performed better than expected. This can also be seen in our technical analysis where the upside in price is limited.



(29 April): Last week, German Ifo Business Climate dipped to 99.2, below the market’s estimate of 99.9 points. Besides, Eurozone consumer confidence remained mired in negative territory, with a score of -8 in April. On Tuesday, Consumer confidence is expected to remain low at 10.3, after recent disappointing print. This weak data is less likely to lift off the EUR. On the same day, the eurozone economy is expected to post weak growth levels after posting two straight gains of 0.2%.EUR could still slip this week ahead of data prints that could disappoint the market.




Technical Analysis

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Fundamental Analysis

(3 May): Factory order numbers for March were stronger than expected up 1.9% m/m, easing the worries over manufacturing sector growth. Tonight the non-farm payroll is to be released and could strengthen the… [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.

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