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JPY
Fundamental Analysis
(29th March): JPY dropped to the lowest in a week as Japanese investors bought foreign currency preparing for the overseas investment in a new fiscal year. The growing risk appetite is also putting additional pressure on JPY. The weakness in JPY is likely to continue today as Friday is the final trading day of this fiscal year for local fixing. This is also in line with our technical view showing further downside before it reaches our first support.
(28th March): Equities edged lower and treasury yields fell to the lowest it has been since December 2017 amid concerns of slowdown in global growth. Meanwhile, the rates on the benchmark German bunds sank deeper into the negative territory after ECB President Mario Draghi indicated the likelihood of a further delay in the next rate hike, fueling existing risk aversion sentiment. These events coupled with the slowdown of China’s economy are not helping to ease concerns over slower growth as a Reuters poll showed that investors expect factory activities in China to contract for the fourth month straight in March. Our technical analysis shows that price is currently testing a strong level of resistance and a break above this level will provide the bullish pressure which is in line with our fundamental view.
(27th March): Risk assets and equities pulled back from their recent low on speculation that it has been oversold. However, the risk on sentiment has limited upside with RBNZ announcing the likelihood of cutting interest rates in their next move to support the slowdown in the global economy. Meanwhile, the weak housing and US consumer data, both falling short of economist expectation, add on to the risk aversion, benefitting the safe haven currency. This is aligned with our technical analysis where we are expecting further upside before it reaches its first resistance.
(26th March): The risk off market sentiment fueled by the dovish FED outlook, inverting yield curve and trade tensions have been priced in last week limiting the upside for the safe haven currency. Treasury yields also pulled back from a 15 month low as investors’ risk aversion are eased with the German IFO business climate data performing better than expected at 99.6, exceeding economists’ forecast of 98.7 adding on to the bearish pressure for the safe haven currency as market’s risk appetite increase. This is also in line with our technical view as we are expecting a further drop in price before it reaches our first resistance.
(25th March): Asian equities plummet, with Nikkei diving more than 3 percent, driven by the trade tensions between US and China, downgraded economic outlook by FED and the inverted yield curve generating fears of an upcoming recession. The spread between the 3 month Treasury bill and 10 year note was negative for the first time in 10 years last Friday, fueling the risk aversion as investors view the flattening yield curve as a strong sign of global economic slowdown. Oil prices dropped by almost 1 percent as fears of an upcoming recession outweighs supply cuts from OPEC’s reduced output and US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela adding on to the risk off market sentiment, benefiting the safe-haven currency. Our fundamental view is also aligned with our technical view as we can see further upside in JPY before it reaches its first resistance.
Technical Analysis
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USD
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Fundamental Analysis
(29th March): FOMC vice chairman John Williams commented on the recent inverted yield curve and downplayed the chances of an economic recession. Instead, his reading of the yield curve is a modest growth going forward. He is backing a stronger dollar case where the rate is likely to remain neutral and the growth is going to pick … [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.
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