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USD
Fundamental Analysis
(28th Mar): Fed Governor Esther George says it was appropriate to put the policy on hold after the central bank’s interest rate hike last year. The economy may have slowed more sharply than previously reported. Various indicators in housing and manufacturing have been showing additional weakness. Factory growth eases with weaknesses in new orders this month. Meanwhile, the consumer confidence dipped for the fourth time in five months with retail sales stagnant. It is not likely to offset the manufacturing weakness by stronger consumption. Today’s final GDP number is likely to show a weaker-than-expected weakness in economic growth, not supportive of a USD rally case.This is in line with our technical analysis where DXY is likely to fall from the 96.93 resistance level.
(27th Mar): USD edged higher on Tuesday despite larger than expected declines in housing starts, building permits, and consumer confidence. Tonight is to see the release of trade balance number. The previous trade deficit in 2018 reached a record, with a 12.4% increase as a consequence of trade restraints in China and depreciating CNY. For today’s current account number, we could see further pressure given the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Furthermore, recent less-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Index is also indicating a weak current account print, which is unlikely to support USD for today’s trading. This is in line with our technical analysis where DXY is likely to drop from the 96.93 resistance level.
(26th Mar): Treasury yield ticked higher on Tuesday after making a new low of 2.4% for the first time since December 2017. The decline by U.S. equities has also slowed. These have supported the dollar as it shows that the market’s economic prospects remain reasonably good. With the trade tension levelled up, USD could be supported in the near-term. Today’s CB Consumer Confidence, which is likely to show an expansion from 131.4 to 132.1, which could help boost USD.USD could edge higher in today’s trading which echoes our technical analysis where DXY is likely to rally further until it reaches 1st support of 96.78.
(25th Mar): The greenback stays somewhat supported on Monday after the Mueller’s report concluded that President Trump did not conspire with Russia during the elections in 2016. In addition, Chicago Fed C. Evans stressed the US economy remains healthy and strong, noting that the current monetary policy stance is neither accommodative nor restrictive and that the Fed is ready to act in case inflation undershoots.
The inversion of the 3m-10y yield has put a floor to the DXY downward price action as risk aversion has helped lifted USD. In addition, this Thursday’s release of the final GDP number is likely to strengthen the dollar, given that the market has been positioned for too much downside risks for USD following the dovish Fed last week.This is in line with our technical analysis where DXY has bounced off from the 95.83 support level and a further rise could occur amid risk aversion.
Technical Analysis
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EUR
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Fundamental Analysis
(28th Mar): Euro lost momentum after the ECB gave gloomy economy forecast – to see its GDP “flat-line at best” over the next decade. Germany bunds sank further below zero after ECB said an accommodative stance is still needed. After the disappointing Germany PMI and better-than-expected Ifo business climate index, today’s … [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.
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