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CAD
Fundamental Analysis
(26th Mar): As Canada’s GDP growth report for January will be published on Friday. The Canadian economy expanded at the slowest pace in two years in Q4 and this January number is important to tell investors whether there’s any pickup in growth starting this year.
Although the retail sale number was weaker than expected especially the new-car sales have contracted by 0.51%, both manufacturing sales and existing home sales in January are showing solid growth. Manufacturing shipment values rebounded 1.0% in January (m/m) after the 1.1% fall in December (revised from -1.3%). Manufacturing sales volumes grew 1.4% in January, supportive of a resumption in GDP growth during the month after the 0.1% declines in GDP during December and November. Canada’s existing home sales in January saw a 3.6% increase which was the first positive print in four months.” Plus, the rally in oil price could help lift up the trade numbers. CAD is likely to rise as traders are poised to position for a possible upside On Friday’s GDP number, which is in line with our technical analysis where the loonie index is likely to bounce from the support of .
(25th Mar): Data released on Friday showed a small pickup in inflation from a 15-month low to 1.5%. At the same time, retail sales unexpectedly decline in January, and it is their third straight monthly sales decline. The inflation target of BOC is 2%. With inflation now at only 1.5%, the bank is in no hurry to lift the interest rate.
Canada’s economy remained weak amid rising gasoline prices. This Wednesday we will see the release of Canada’s trade number. The last January’s trade deficit increased to C$4.6 billion, much higher than the $2.4 billion expectation. This has indicated the influence of the trade war between the U.S. and China. The February’s trade deficit is expected to be 2.3B and the actual number could still soar up due to Sino-Canada trade tension. On Friday, Canada is to release the monthly GDP number. The economy has contracted by 0.1% for two successive months, and another decline, which is likely, could push the Canadian currency lower. This is in line with our technical analysis where the loonie index is likely to extend the drop further until it reaches the 6.9031 support level.
Technical Analysis
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USD
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Fundamental Analysis
(26th Mar): Treasury yield ticked higher on Tuesday after making a new low of 2.4% for the first time since December 2017. The decline by U.S. equities has also slowed. These have supported the dollar as it shows that the market’s economic prospects remain reasonably good. With the trade tension levelled up, USD could be supported… [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.
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