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JPY
Fundamental Analysis
(26 Apr): Demand for the safe haven currency rose as market’s risk appetite shrink amid softer economic data from Australia and the Europe. Meanwhile, traders are building up their long positions on yen, ahead of the 10 days public holiday to mark the new imperial era. According to data from Tokoyo Financial Exchange, traders’ net long positions were at 20613 contracts as of April 23, which is worth $2.09 billion. The spur in demand for safe haven currency could be driven by the upcoming shut down where a sharp drop in liquidity in the absence of an estimated $400 billion daily turnover from Japan raised fears of a repeat of the flash crash seen in January.
(25 Apr): BOJ decided to keep their interest rates unchanged at 1.75% and indicated that despite the uncertainty in the current economic landscape, Japan’s economic growth is on track, easing concerns over a slowdown in Japan’s economy. The central bank also emphasizes that it will continue adopting the easing monetary policy to boost growth, causing JPY to rise. Meanwhile, Japan’s Golden week holidays added bullish pressure to the currency as traders cut risk positions to avoid a repeat of the flash crash seen in January. This shrinking market risk appetite also benefited the safe haven currency. This can be seen in our technical analysis where we expect further upside before price reaches our first resistance.
(24 Apr): Although the risk off sentiment benefits the safe haven currency as investors sought the negative interest rates to borrow in Japan and invest in other countries to generate returns, JPY’s upside is facing strong resistance with the release of its weak economic data. All industry Activity Index declined by 0.2%, exceeding estimates of -0.1% while the Leading Economic Index for February numbers were 97.1, missing estimates of 97.4. From the technical analysis perspective, price is also testing our first resistance where we would need to see a break above this level for further upside.
(23 Apr): Market risk appetite shrank due to the long easter holidays and recent political uncertainty, benefiting the safe haven currency. With the recent bombing in Sri Lanka and heightened tensions on Iran sanctions as US announced its decision to not renew waivers that allow other countries to buy Iran’s oil without facing sanctions, we expect the risk aversion to stay. However, we believe that most of the bearish risk sentiment has been priced in and the upcoming BOJ monetary policy statement and interest rate decisions might limit the upside of the safe haven currency as we expect BOJ to adopt a dovish stance and keep interest rates unchanged. This can also be seen in our technical analysis where there is limited upside before price reaches our first resistance.
(22 Apr): Markets calmed down as investors drift towards safe haven currencies with the long easter holidays around the corner. We remain bullish on JPY as the risk aversion driven by the economic and political uncertainty would benefit the safe haven currency. US has also declared that it would not provide waivers for any countries that import Iran oil, and countries that do not adhere to that might face sanctions themselves, adding on to the risk aversion. This can also be seen in our technical analysis where price have further upside before it reaches its first resistance.
Technical Analysis
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USD
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Fundamental Analysis
(25th Apr): The dollar and havens rose broadly Wednesday as several major currencies broke multi-month ranges amid a stream of weak global economic data. The bloomberg dollar index had the biggest gain since August as it rose as much as 0.7% to a four month peak. The dollar remained king of the currency world as German data sapped confidence in the… [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.
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