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JPY
Fundamental Analysis
(22 Mar): Equities traded with caution amid fresh worries over US sanctions on North Korea forcing them to give up their nuclear and ballistic missile programs and China imposing anti-dumping measures on steel products from EU, Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia. These events coupled with the recent pullback in oil prices due to global economic slowdown fueled the risk aversion, benefiting the safe-haven currency. This is in line with our bullish view in our technical analysis where we are expecting further upside before it reaches our first resistance.
(21st Mar): US equities plummet with disappointing results from the FOMC meeting yesterday as the FED lowered their forecast on GDP growth for the US economy from 2.3% to 2.1% in 2019 and 2.0% to 1.9% in 2020. Interest rates are kept constant, with the next expected rate hike in 2020, failing to meet expectations of most investors who are anticipating one more rate hike in 2019, sending the greenback currency plummeting and fueling the risk off market sentiment. Global economy slowdown driven by the slowdown in the Chinese economy and rising trade tensions is putting more bearish pressure on market risk sentiment, boosting the demand for the safe-haven currency. This is in line with our bullish view in our technical analysis which shows further upside before price reaches our first resistance.
(20 Mar): Asian equities edged lower amid rising tensions between US and China as Chinese officials take a step back from their previous agreements in data protection of pharmaceuticals and changes in intellectual-property policies. This coupled with the increasing number of defaults on Chinese corporate bonds aggravated by high borrowing costs and the crackdown on shadow lending is putting a bearish pressure on market risk sentiment. The demand for the safe-haven currency is also boosted by Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who reinforces the importance of BOJ keeping a 2% inflation target to generate positive economic effects. This is in line with our bullish view on technical analysis which shows further upside before price reaches our first resistance where we might see a possible drop after that.
(19th Mar): The Euro stock indexes started the day with modest gains indicating the risk on market sentiment. This coupled with the disappointing data release on Japan’s exports which fell short of economist expectations by 0.9% limit the upside of the safe haven currency. Our fundamental view is also aligned with our bearish view on JXY in our technical analysis as it is approaching resistance where we are expecting a drop below this level although further rise could occur before that.
(18th Mar): The Bank of Japan left its monetary stimulus program unchanged as it downgraded its assessment of exports, factory output, and overseas economies. Japan’s exports fell for a third straight month in February, with autos the biggest loss. Shipments fell 1.2% by value from a year earlier, worse than expected. JPY dipped as Asian equities rise with improved risk sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later in the week. The risk-on sentiment is likely to put a lid on the safe-haven currency. This echoes our technical analysis that JXY is likely to fall to the 88.0 support level.
Technical Analysis
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USD
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Fundamental Analysis
(22nd Mar): The U.S. economy is showing more and more downside after recent outperformance. Citigroup’s measure of economic surprises of the U.S. continues to surprise to the downside while the measure of euro-area data surprises extends its recovery from January’s negative extremes. So in the long run, we are likely to see the optimism towards the U.S. to ease off gradually, which will, in turn, add on the pressure to USD price… [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.
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