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JPY
Fundamental Analysis
(22nd Feb): At the economic front, Japan’s January month headline CPI rose 0.2% y/y against 0.3% prior while National CPI
ex-fresh food y/y matched 0.8% market consensus versus 0.7% earlier. The soft inflation was not able to hold the currency
stable. Following little weakness, the USD/JPY benefited from the early-day positive sentiment at the trade front on Friday.
China’s readiness to import more of the US agricultural products and absence of any negative headlines pleased buyers
whereas the US President Donald Trump’s afternoon meeting with the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He strengthened the mood.
Considering a weak risk-on market sentiments, we keep a bearish view on JPY.
(21st Feb): The more risk-on market sentiment is more likely to flee away from the safe-haven JPY. We believe the USDJPY
will be dominated by a slightly bullish stance that could push the pair higher. Traders are likely to stay poised before today’s
industrial number release.
(20th Feb): BOJ’s Kuroda talked dovish yesterday and the selling in JPY seen at press time likely indicates the markets are
expecting the central bank head to reiterate the readiness to do more if required. This has pushed the JPY down to 111.93. The
market is seeing less chances of a new QE program to be launched as the enterprises are already facing a bad operating
environment with US threatening to increase tariffs for car and car parts.
Further, the currency fell again on Wednesday morning on the news of disappointing trade numbers. Weakening overseas
demand may reinforce the need for more policy easing, echoing Kuroda’s speech.
(19th Feb): USDJPY started on Tuesday with the yen gaining investors’ favour to 110.46 in Asian morning, optimism over trade
talks between the US and China have kept spirits high, although there is still plenty to play for in Washington this week and what
goes up, must come down when there are profits on the table to be had; Without there being anything concrete on the matter to
beef up the headlines, sentiment will likely wear thin again unless a buy the rumour sell the fact trade is going to play. We
tweaked our daily view to be neutral as the market is still having a steady and patient sentiment and waiting for good news from
the trade talk.
(18th Feb): Dollar/yen gained ground last week, as the pair recorded its highest weekly close since mid- December. Stocks
rose, as investors remain optimistic on a deal between the U.S. and China. Fundamentally, Japanese GDP rebounded in the
fourth quarter with a gain of 0.3%, after a decline of 0.6% in the third quarter. Business and consumer spending improved,
helping the economy expand. Exports rose 0.9% in Q4, the strongest growth in a year.
All eyes are still on the trade talk, which still brings in much volatility to the market. The market is showing improving risk
appetite as investors dip JPY. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin calling last week’s negotiations “productive”. China also
responded in Xinhua Press that the negotiation has made “important progress”. Asian market on Monday morning shows nice
bounce after Friday’s US equity market gains. We now believe that the optimism will hang on for a while, but if any negative
news happens in this week’s extended talk in Washington, this could twist the whole picture.
Technical Analysis
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USD
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Fundamental Analysis
(22nd Feb): The greenback has reverted a negative first half of the week, as rising hopes on a probable deal on the US-China
trade dispute have been sustaining the better mood in the risk-associated… [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.
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