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USD
Fundamental Analysis
(21st Mar): The dollar had the biggest daily loss since January due to an unexpected more dovish Fed. Jerome Powell said interest rates could be on hold for “some time” as global risks weigh on the economic outlook and inflation remains muted. The Fed doesn’t see data coming in that suggest a move in either direction. The Fed actually projects the rate hike of this year to be zero chance. The 10 year Treasury yield dropped to its lowest level in more than one year. Stocks also retreated. This more dovish stance surprised the market. This could mean the softness in the economy could be more long-lasting than we expected. For the daily trading, we think the USD is likely to consolidate in a tight range before a bounce from the new low. This echoes our technical analysis where DXY is at near the 1st support level of 95.76 and could see a possible bounce.
(20th Mar): Today, all eyes are on the Fed. The Fed is expected to hold interest rate steady, announced plans for the end of asset roll-off from its balance sheet, and lower projections for the number of interest-rate hikes this year. Yet, the risk event is not likely to upset the stability we saw both in the currency and stock market now as VIX is reaching new lows. With central banks around the world stating dovish stances and warning of downside risks, the Fed’s restatement of its dovish stance would not be a surprise unless the Fed emphasized on the possibility of a near-term rate cut, which can be a low probability event. However, the tensions before the FOMC could add on to USD’s bounce. For today’s trading, USD is likely to bounce. If FOMC meeting doesn’t emphasize on the recent rate cut chance as expected, USD could find support and a possible rise could occur. This echoes our technical analysis where DXY has bounced off from the 96.27 support level and prepare for a further rise.
(19th Mar): Although there are no major U.S. events on the schedule, USD edged lower on Monday in a strong risk-on sentiment which shrank later on Tuesday. The USD tend to steady ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. A soft housing number released on Monday is adding on to the downward traction. The risk-on sentiment, resumed after the Euro stock opened high, could continue to put a lid on USD for today’s trading ahead of Wednesday’s interest rate meeting.
(18th Mar): The dollar steadied after its biggest weekly loss this year on the back of reports which showed U.S. manufacturing and industrial production moderated over the past month. This week’s focus is on FOMC meeting this Wednesday, however, the central bank is likely to hold the interest rate unchanged as the downside risks still remain.
Although the delay of U.S. and China President meeting has aroused some uncertainties in the market which can provide support for USD, the risk-on sentiment, seen from the SPX and Asian equity rally, is likely to put pressure on USD at the start of this week. This echoes our technical analysis where DXY is likely to fall further to its first support level of 95.83 this week.
Technical Analysis
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EUR
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Fundamental Analysis
(21st Mar): The setback of the U.S.-China trade talk is putting pressure on EUR as the slowdown in either of the two countries has aroused tensions for the growth of the export-dependent Eurozone. The EURO could see further drop for today’s trading as our Euro currency index is indicating a further drop from the 7.0227 resistance level pressured… [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.
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