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EUR
Fundamental Analysis
(20th Mar): Euro ticked higher as German investor confidence released on Tuesday rose for a fifth straight month. Eurozone purchasing manager survey numbers on Friday will give an indication of the health of the region’s industrial and service sectors. The mixed risk appetite is not weighing on EUR much, and the EUR could edge lower today ahead of FOMC meeting as EXY also indicate a drop from the 113.6 resistance level.
(19th Mar): On Monday, the trade balance in the eurozone climbed to EUR 17.0 billion, marking a 9-month high. On Tuesday, Germany releases ZEW Economic Sentiment, which is expected to remain mired in negative territory. Last Friday’s February inflation numbers brought no surprises. Eurozone CPI edged up from 1.4% to 1.5%, matching expectations. With inflation below the ECB target of around 2 percent, the bank is unlikely to raise rates until there is a significant improvement in economic data out of Germany and the eurozone. For today’s trading, EUR could stay quiet ahead of FOMC meeting as the EXY could possibly edge higher to the 113.3 resistance level or consolidate in a tight range.
(18th Mar): The Eurozone’s macro data is showing signs of a rebound, and Credit Suisse strategists noted that when European macro surprises rise relative to the U.S., the euro tends to appreciate with a 3-month lag. Among the upside surprises are rising French consumer confidence, recovering the German auto sector, and easing financial conditions. Yet, the rebound still needs more evidence to convince that the slowdown eases off. The Euro could still see some support from this week’s PMI print due to the rebound in recent data print. This echoes our technical analysis where EXY is likely to rise further before a potentil drop.
Purchasing manager survey numbers on Friday will give an indication of the health of the region’s industrial and service sectors at the end of the first quarter.
Technical Analysis
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USD
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Fundamental Analysis
(20th Mar): Today, all eyes are on the Fed. The Fed is expected to hold interest rate steady, announced plans for the end of asset roll-off from its balance sheet, and lower projections for the number of interest-rate hikes this year. Yet, the risk event is not likely to upset the stability we saw both in the currency and stock market now as VIX is reaching… [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.
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