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USD
Fundamental Analysis
(2 May): Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a news conference that recently low inflationary pressures may only be “transitory,” dashing speculation the central bank was at least entertaining the idea of a rate cut because of tame inflation. Treasury yields rebounded on Powell’s comment. The 2-year yield went from a session low of around 2.2% to trade back at 2.27%. The market has been pricing in the interest rate cut, and a more neutral central bank is sending signals that the dollar could have been oversold. Both factories orders and unemployment number are to release tonight, and the result is likely to show a mixed picture when employment data is expected to stay, and manufacturing could still disappoint. USD could edge slightly upward ahead of the major releases.
(30 April): The market on Tuesday indicates risk-off sentiment, not only because of the miss in the Chinese PMI (both official and Caixin) but also due to the upcoming Fed’s SOMA day. What this means is that as part of the Fed’s QT program, April 30th marks the day when the Central Bank will shrink USD liquidity by 28.1bn in its balance sheet. Whenever liquidity is withdrawn via these redemptions, there is a pattern of US Dollar strength, which more often than not, is accompanied by a greater apprehension towards risk-seeking strategies. The USD could edge higher for today’s trading.
(29 April): The US GDP Q1 came with a very strong headline number of +3.2%, much higher than the calls for an ambitious 2.3%, bearing in mind the hinders for growth due to the government shutdown. However, USD dropped upon the upbeat growth number. One reason for the downside pressure is the low levels of inflation as indicated via the Fed’s preferred PCE deflator (1.3% vs 1.8% exp). It puts the Fed back on the spotlight as there’s reviving hope that the the central bank could cut interest. The drop in US yields was the clearest manifestation of increased easing odds. Today we will see the release of U.S. Core PCE Price Index and personal spending data. Any softness would play into the hands of investors betting on a Federal Reserve interest rate reduction this year.
Technical Analysis
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JPY
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Fundamental Analysis
(2 May): Japan is still on holiday. The market is still dominated by risk-aversion when the stock market reacts little after positive news from the trade talk. Today the market can shrink its risk appetite upon heavy Eurozone manufacturing data prints today. Though Eurozone’s 1Q GDP printed better than expected, no details were… [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.
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