Daily Analysis: 15 Mar 2019

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Fundamental Analysis

(15th Mar): Yen ticked higher after North Korea said it was reviewing plans to suspend denuclearization talks with the U.S. Earlier this morning, BoJ left its stimulus plan unchanged as it downgraded its forecast of economic growth, offsetting JPY’s upward trend.

The risk sentiment today is quite volatile, which has kept JPY in a tight range. News that China is considering to delay the Trump-Xi meeting to at least April extended some support to the Japanese Yen’s safe-haven status, though was largely offset by a positive tone around equity markets. For the daily trading, JPY could tick higher if SPX can surpass the 2815 level and JXY is also showing a bullish bias where JXY could rise further to the 90.1 resistance level before a potential drop.



(14th Mar): Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak on Friday after he and his board conclude their discussions on monetary policy. Yet, JPY’s recent traction may depend more on the risk appetite and capital flow. Demand for risk could continue to increase on Thursday if the positive developments continue over Brexit. JPY could suffer as capital is likely to flow from JPY to risky assets. Our technical analysis is also supporting a bearish bias for JPY as JXY is likely to approach the 90.5 resistance level and a potential drop could occur from there.



(13th Mar): JPY gained as uncertainty before another U.K. parliament vote on Brexit boosted demand for the haven currency. On the trade front, top US trade official Robert Lighthizer said this morning that the outcome of trade talks with China remains in doubt. Headway is being made but ‘there still are major issues that have to be resolved”, which is more likely to put a lid to risky assets and boost JPY further. Our technical analysis also supports a bullish JPY traction as JXY is approaching the 89.0 support level where a bounce could occur.



(12th Mar): Yen falls against all major pairs as Brexit Optimism reduced demand for the safe haven currency. However, the risk-off sentiment is still in a weak format without a double confirmation from the SPX. SPX is still under the important 2815 resistance level. There still be chances for JPY to rally if the Brexit new amendment is still not enough for the British Parliament to sign off on the Brexit deal. The JXY slipped on Monday due to the risk-on mood triggered by Brexit optimism and is expected to rise further to the monthly peak of 90.4 amid Brexit and trade talk uncertainties.



(11th Mar): Although it’s upside is seems to be limited, yen rose for the fourth day against the dollar after concerns over global economic outlook weighed on stocks overseas. Bonds are seen facing resistance after initial buying. The currency could see support this week as there are sufficient risk events for traders to play macro defense. Volatile China stocks, multiple Brexit votes in the U.K. parliament, U.S.-China trade negotiations, even the threat of a North Korean missile launch. Yen is expected to rally further if the risk-off sentiments continue to dominate the market as the market awaits news from China data from the second week of NPC, Brexit votes and U.S.-China trade talk progress.




Technical Analysis

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Fundamental Analysis

(15th Mar): The optimism on a possible deal by this month between the U.S. and China faded in past hours. On another front, US inflation seems to be losing some traction while activity remains strong, adding to the ongoing debate on whether the Fed should reassess its interest rate … [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.

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