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NZD
Fundamental Analysis
(15th Feb): The currency may go lower today the recovery in risk appetite could be offset by the weak US retails number. Further, it could be affected negatively by the NZ-China relations as China is looking to rebalance its imports away from NZ.
(14th Feb): Good US CPI data and optimism on trade talk are still dominating the market, we expect the commodity currency to benefit from it.
(13th Feb): The RBNZ surprised the market with a less dovish tone on the economy. When the market was nearly fully priced in for a rate cut by the end of this year, RBNZ iterated the increasing chance of a interest hike in March 2021 instead of “ it could be either way”. On the other hand, the bank downgraded its views on GDP growth and inflation for this year, but upped the expected level where the New Zealand dollar trade-weighted index will sit. Internationally, Orr, like the RBA, acknowledged that the risk of a sharper economic downturn in New Zealand’s key trading partners had “heightened over recent months”. The inflation target was adjusted down to 1.4%, still way below the 2% inflation target. The market is now bouncing to price in the higher chance of “no interest cut in 2019”. We tweaked our daily view to be neutral for NZD to consolidate after the quick jump.
(12th Feb): The Kiwi underperformed ahead as RBNZ attempts to out-dove its Australian counterparty with new economic forecasts and fresih guidance on the interest rate outlook. The market is expecting the RBNZ to acknowledge the weak inflation pressure and to emphasize the weak economy.
(11th Feb): In some ways, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was ahead of the game when it opened the door to the possibility of a rate cut back in August 2018, while other central banks held on to over-optimistic growth forecasts. Since the start of the year, all major central banks have either turned more dovish or taken a more cautious tone. The RBNZ could go one step further at its meeting on Wednesday and provide a more explicit signal of looser policy even as it holds the cash rate steady for now.
The New Zealand dollar has already faced a sell-off this past week from surprisingly weak employment numbers for the fourth quarter. The RBNZ could spark sharper losses in the kiwi if it bolsters its dovish language and lowers its economic projections in its latest Monetary Policy Statement, due to be published the same day.
Technical Analysis
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USD
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Fundamental Analysis
(15th Feb): US figures were quite disappointing, the reason why the greenback was unable to extend its rally to fresh highs. Retail Sales were down by 1.2% in December, missing the market’s expectation of 0.2%, while… [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.
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