Daily Analysis: 14 Mar 2019

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Fundamental Analysis

(14th Mar): Wednesday brought more good news for USD as orders for durable goods posted its biggest gain in six months – 0.4% gain. The number tracks business investment plans and is seen as a proxy for further growth.

Additionally, U.S. construction spending surged in January, with investment in public projects rising to a more than eight-year high, which could boost economic growth estimates for the first quarter. This news largely offset weaker than expected producer inflation data.
This week’s data has been just strong enough to indicate the economy still has a pulse despite a global economic slowdown. This healthy data can still boost USD amid other currencies weakness. For today’s trading, our technical analysis also shows that the DXY is attracted to the 96.94 resistance level from current 96.64 level before a potential drop.



(13th Mar): The latest U.S. inflation reading came amid falling prices of autos and prescription drugs, adding to evidence the U.S. economy is in no danger of overheating and an interest rate is not required in the near term. On the trade front, top US trade official Robert Lighthizer said this morning that the outcome of trade talks with China remains in doubt. Headway is being made but ‘there still are major issues that have to be resolved”, which is more likely to put a lid to risky assets and boost USD further.


Later today, the US is to release the update of Core Durable Goods Orders and PPI. Core Durable Goods Orders are forecast to have risen 0.1% while Durable Goods Orders are predicted to have fallen 0.5%. PPI and Core PPI are expected to have risen by 0.2%. Construction Spending is forecast to have risen by 0.4%. Since the data print is more likely to show healthy growth, DXY could bounce from recent retracement with DXY edging upwards from 96.65 support level.



(12th Mar): U.S. retail sales stabilized in January after a plunge the prior month that was larger than first reported, indicating consumers may still be able to help support economic growth after a dismal end to 2018. Sales in the “control group” subset, which some analysts view as a cleaner gauge of underlying consumer demand, rose 1.1%, topping estimates after a 2.3% drop in the prior month. The measure excludes food services, car dealers, building-materials stores and gasoline stations.

Today’s focus will be on U.S. CPI, which is expected to be little changed from the previous month and can provide evidence to justify the Fed’s dovish stance. If the CPI number can beat the expectation, which is still likely due to good retail sales number, this may raise the speculation that Fed may consider changing its recent dovish stance since the Fed is still dependent on data. The DXY is expected to bounce from Monday’s retracement in expectation of good CPI number and is expected to edge higher near the weekly high of 97.73.



(11th Mar): USD price action was subdued due to Friday’s disappointing jobs data that showed that the US economy added only 20K new jobs in February as compared to 180K expected. After the mixed labour report, all eyes will be on today’s important release of the US monthly retail sales data. Followed by the retails sales number are US consumer inflation figures on Tuesday and durable goods orders on Wednesday. Recent reading of the retail sales disappointed the market with December’s -1.8% m/m growth, and retail number this time could still fail the market expectation as economic data coming out of the US for the past few weeks has been broadly missing estimates. U.S. is hard to escape from the global slowdown as global economy is so intertwined now.




Technical Analysis

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Fundamental Analysis

(14th Mar): Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak on Friday after he and his board conclude their discussions on monetary policy. Yet, JPY’s recent traction may depend more on the risk appetite and capital flow. Demand for risk could continue to increase on Thursday if the positive developments… [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.

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