Everest Fortune Group | Daily Analysis: 14 June 2019
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Daily Analysis: 14 June 2019

Daily Analysis: 14 June 2019

USD

Fundamental Analysis

(14 June) USD edged higher against other commodity currencies, together with JPY and Treasuries. Today we are going to see the release of U.S. retail sales and University of Michigan’s inflation expectations in U.S. trading session. It is likely that after recent increased tariffs, the May retails number can be even softer than expected. The recent import prices fell 0.3% m/m in May, the first drop since December. This could give us a hint of the softness of domestic consumption. If US May retail sales fail the market again, next week’s FOMC meeting will be on focus as the market will start to price in more chances of a near-term rate cut. Meanwhile, Trump administration said Iran is responsible for attacks on two oil tanker near the entrance to the Persian Gulf. Safe currencies JPY and CHF are attracting more funds than USD amid the geopolitics.

 

 

(13 June): GBP fell as an opposition bid to block a no-deal exit failed. The Labour Party fails in bid to seize control of parliamentary agenda to block a no-deal Brexit. House of Commons votes by 309 votes to 298 to reject a motion to take control of the parliamentary agenda on June 25. This failure has raised speculation that a stop of the no-deal from parliamentary votes is not possible. Dominic who supported the labour motion against no-deal said he fears there will be no more chances to stop a chaotic Brexit in the parliamentary timetable before the Oct. 31 deadline.  As the market is seeing more chances of a hard Brexit, the GBP is likely to tumble further.

 

 

(12 June): Asian stocks tick lower amid signs of fatigue in the recent revival in risk appetite. Treasuries steadied. HK shared led losses as demonstrators threatened to bring the city to a standstill, while equities declined to a lesser extent in the Shanghai and Seoul. President Trump said he’s personally holding up a trade deal with China and that he won’t complete the agreement unless Beijing returns to terms negotiated earlier in the year. The crude oil declined again. The market is seeing another wave of risk aversion coming back and JPY could tick higher benefiting from it.

 

 

(11 June):EUR could still see a rebounding day as the spread between the two-year US and German government bond yields fell to 250 basis points on Friday, the lowest level since December 2017. In a calendar light day, EUR could still be favored by investors due to the decreasing US-DE yield gap. If USD CPI  data fails, the EUR could benefit more.

 

 

(10th June): CAD outperformed last friday amidst rosier employment report. In May, Canada added 27.7k jobs versus 5.0k anticipated. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked lower from 5.7% to 5.4%. Local 2 year government bond yield rallied as BoC rate cut bets cooled. Investors may now look forward to Canadian housing market data and the US JOLTS jobs report for fresh impulse in addition to following trade news. Canada’s May housing starts could weaken to 196.4K vs 235.5K prior while April month building permits may soften to 0.5% growth against 2.1% earlier.

 

 

Technical Analysis

CHF 

Fundamental Analysis

(14 June) USD edged higher against other commodity currencies, together with JPY and Treasuries. Today we are going to see the release of U.S. retail sales and University of Michigan’s inflation expectations in U.S. trading session. It is likely that after recent increased tariffs, the May retails number can be even softer than expected. The recent import prices fell 0.3% m/m in May, the first drop since December. This could give us a hint of the softness of domestic consumption. If US May retail sales fail the market again, next week’s FOMC meeting will be on focus as the market will start to price in more chances of a near-term rate cut. Meanwhile, Trump administration said Iran is responsible for attacks on two oil tanker near the entrance to the Persian Gulf. Safe currencies JPY and CHF are attracting more funds than USD amid the geopolitics.

 

 

(13 June): GBP fell as an opposition bid to block a no-deal exit failed. The Labour Party fails in bid to seize control of parliamentary agenda to block a no-deal Brexit. House of Commons votes by 309 votes to 298 to reject a motion to take control of the parliamentary agenda on June 25. This failure has raised speculation that a stop of the no-deal from parliamentary votes is not possible. Dominic who supported the labour motion against no-deal said he fears there will be no more chances to stop a chaotic Brexit in the parliamentary timetable before the Oct. 31 deadline.  As the market is seeing more chances of a hard Brexit, the GBP is likely to tumble further.

 

 

(12 June): Asian stocks tick lower amid signs of fatigue in the recent revival in risk appetite. Treasuries steadied. HK shared led losses as demonstrators threatened to bring the city to a standstill, while equities declined to a lesser extent in the Shanghai and Seoul. President Trump said he’s personally holding up a trade deal with China and that he won’t complete the agreement unless Beijing returns to terms negotiated earlier in the year. The crude oil declined again. The market is seeing another wave of risk aversion coming back and JPY could tick higher benefiting from it.

 

 

(11 June):EUR could still see a rebounding day as the spread between the two-year US and German government bond yields fell to 250 basis points on Friday, the lowest level since December 2017. In a calendar light day, EUR could still be favored by investors due to the decreasing US-DE yield gap. If USD CPI  data fails, the EUR could benefit more.

 

 

(10th June) CAD outperformed last friday amidst rosier employment report. In May, Canada added 27.7k jobs versus 5.0k anticipated. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked lower from 5.7% to 5.4%. Local 2 year government bond yield rallied as BoC rate cut bets cooled. Investors may now look forward to Canadian housing market data and the US JOLTS jobs report for fresh impulse in addition to following trade news. Canada’s May housing starts could weaken to 196.4K vs 235.5K prior while April month building permits may soften to 0.5% growth against 2.1% earlier.

… 

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