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JPY
Fundamental Analysis
(14th Feb): On Wednesday, Japanese Yen pared slight gains in response to mixed 4Q preliminary GDP data and dropped further afterwards.Preliminary annualized GDP for the fourth quarter came in at 1.4%, in line with the estimate and up from -2.6%. Meanwhile the initial seasonally adjusted growth figure for 4Q was 0.3%, a decline from the forecast of 0.4% but an improvement from the -0.6% prior. We remain bearish for JPY as the optimism on US economy and the trade talk is still weighing on as US treasuries yield rises after good US CPI data.
(13th Feb): On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday (Feb 12) he would consider extending the deadline for a trade deal with China beyond Mar 1, yet, only when he feels they are close to a deal. This news boosts the equity market as there’s more chance a deal can be sealed between the two super powerhouses, and market is acting more risk-on. This could cause the JPY selling to continue. Yet, we think Japan Q4 GDP is more likely to rise given higher capex and government spending, enough to offset the weak export. This could give JPY a short-term boost for today, and we tweaked our view to neutral for today.
(12th Feb): On Monday, the market is risk-on amid optimism for the US-China trade talk which help boost USD at the expense of the safe haven yen. But as our houseview remains that by the end of the week the trade talk progress is more likely to disappoint the market , JPY may see a boost in later days of the week.
(11th Feb): Japan’s economy is expected to have returned to growth in the final three months of 2018. Data on Thursday is anticipated to show GDP expanded by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after contracting by 0.6% in the third quarter. While a stronger-than-forecast figure could give the yen a little bit of a bump up, it’s unlikely to allay concerns that more negative quarters could be on the way in 2019 as trade tensions and slowing growth globally weigh on Japanese exporters.
But there is uncertainty on whether there will be a sufficient boost in consumption to offset weakness in exports, as slowing global demand and U.S.-Sino trade frictions hurt business sentiment. Exports in December fell the most in more than two years, heightening the chance Japan could slide into recession this year. As the last quarter’s consumer confidence index shows dropping momentum to 42.7 from January’s 44.7, it is hard to see strong GDP growth for Q4 2018.
Separate data showed inflation-adjusted real wages rose 1.4 percent in December, though the gain was mostly due to an increase in winter bonuses. Regular pay, which accounts for the bulk of monthly wages, rose at a slower 0.9 percent pace in the year to December, from a 1.3 percent increase in November. When you look at the October-December quarter, consumption fared fairly well and will probably contribute positively to gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
Technical Analysis
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USD
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Fundamental Analysis
(14th Feb): Treasury yields rose Wednesday after a key inflation report showed modest price pressures lingered in the U.S. economy even in the face of a global growth slowdown, diminishing the possibility that the Federal Reserve’s next move might be a rate cut. January’s consumer-price index was flat on… [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.
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