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EUR
Fundamental Analysis
(13th Mar): The common currency picked up a bid in the North American session on Tuesday after the US February inflation number missed estimates, validating Fed’s patience on rate hikes. The 10-year treasury yield fell to over two-month lows below 2.6 percent. The spread between the 10-year US and German government bond yields also fell three basis points to 254 basis points yesterday.
(12th Mar): The spread between the 10-year US and German (DE) government bond yields is currently seen at 259.2 basis points – the highest level since Dec. 18. Notably, the spread is up five basis points from the low of 254 basis points seen on Friday. So, EUR/USD bounce from 21-month lows looks like a bear trap. The benchmark bond yield spread may widen further in the EUR-negative manner if the US consumer price index for February, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, betters estimate. The EXY rose on Monday thanks to the Brexit optimism. However, it is more likely to dip if the US consumer price index can beat the estimate.
(11th Mar): A dovish turn from the ECB and a dismal outlook for the region’s growth are weighing on the euro. According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, net short speculative positions reached the largest since Dec 2016. Italy’s recent data weakness and its political trauma have raised investors’ tensions. Moody’s is set to review Italy’s credit rating on Mar 15 and S&P on Apr 26 and a possible rating downgrade can hit the currency further. Our technical analysis echoes with the fundamental weakness: the euro index can possibly drop from the 112.7 resistance level given German industrial production is expected to fall short of expectations as the largest Eurozone economy cools down.
Technical Analysis
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USD
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Fundamental Analysis
(13th Mar): The latest U.S. inflation reading came amid falling prices of autos and prescription drugs, adding to evidence the U.S. economy is in no danger of overheating and an interest rate is not required in the near term. On the trade front, top US trade official Robert Lighthizer said this morning… [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.
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