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GBP
Fundamental Analysis
The latest PMIs pointed to UK growth stagnating at the start of the year, but in the last three months of 2018, the British economy probably managed a modest expansion of 0.2% q/q. The GDP report on Monday will be accompanied by a slew of other data, including industrial production and trade. Industrial and manufacturing output are both forecast to have returned to positive growth, rising by 0.2% m/m each in December.
Our house view is that GDP growth in the fourth quarter can be slightly beat the 0.2% market expectation but still way below previous quarter’s 0.6% q/q as the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI of Dec expanded well to 51.2, beating the 50.7 market expectation and service industry makes 80% of the GDP. The data can provide weak support for GBP as a moderate beat of consensus will not be strong enough to ease off the worries that Brexit coinciding with a global economic slowdown could further sink British markets.
The pound could be in line for some small gains if the data surprises mostly to the upside, especially after the BoE signaled last week that rate hikes could still be on the cards if there is a smooth Brexit, despite the weaker global backdrop. However, traders are unlikely to place any large bets in sterling until there’s more clarity on whether Theresa May will be able to win significant concessions from the European Union on the Irish backstop issue.
Technical Analysis
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JPY
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Fundamental Analysis
Powell speech is not likely to bring much new information to the market while the Fed’s dovish tone has been gradually priced in by investors. It’s going to be relatively quiet in the US as some key data such as Q4 GDP have… [/blur][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][vc_row_inner row_type=”row” type=”full_width” use_row_as_full_screen_section_slide=”no” text_align=”left” css_animation=””][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/5″][vc_separator type=”normal” color=”#b70909″ border_style=””][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/5″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_empty_space height=”35px”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” text_align=”left” background_animation=”none” css_animation=””][vc_column width=”1/5″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/5″][kswr_heading head_align=”center” head_subtitle_color=”#333333″ head_title=”ACCESS RESTRICTED” head_title_fsize=”font-size:23px;line-height:2;” head_title_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:700;” head_subtitle_fsize=”font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;” head_subtitle_fstyle=”font-family:Inherit;font-weight:inherit;” head_title_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;” head_subtitle_margins=”margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;”]Our comprehensive daily reports covers both technical and fundamental analysis, and are customised to your requirements.
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